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Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Peak oil , war and chaos, what's our plan?

I've been following the work of Matt Simmons for a couple of years as one of the most realistic and data supported Peak Oil prophets I've read, it's good to see him getting his message out into the mainstream press as he does today in the G&M

Today's message while vintage Simmons is a little more blunt than what usually works through to the MSM.

Oil shortages "could lead to social chaos and war," he warned. "The issue is the most serious risk to sustaining the 21st century. Peak oil is real, and we have to take it seriously." He argued that production of conventional crude peaked in May, 2005, at 74 million barrels a day.

Since then, the world has met rising consumption - now at about 88-million barrels a day - by cutting inventories, tapping natural gas liquids that typically are included in crude production figures and using better refinery efficiencies.

When the media occasionally flirts with Peak oil they always talk about high prices and grumpy consumers but rarely broach the topic of the real long term shortages and how to deal with them.

When these shortages come, is the government prepared with rationing plans or the means to make sure that fuel is prioritized to basic services?

So what will be the short term response when those first temporary shortages don't go away?

Ration cards allotting so many gallons per weak?
Banning massive displacement vehicles?
Let price dictate who gets fuel?
Banning anything drive through?
Industrial holidays?
Running our dead through a Thermal Depolymerization plants
"Sunoco Green, is People!!!!!!)
Will our concerns be a moot point as the U.S. 7Th Calvary simply seizes Alberta?

If Government will not force a reduction in our oil dependence now they should at least be planning how we will deal with the chaos shortages cause. Is any of this why we've agreed to let Canadian and U.S. troops be deployed on the wrong sides of the border?

I would recommend that anyone interested in Peak Oil should have a look at some of Matt Simmons presentationsRecommend this Post

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

A first reasonable response might be to do whatever possible to get rid of private vehicles while increasing public transit. Until local food systems are up and running, first priority will be transporting food, not one body per car to the office/plant/movie theatre.

Then there's actually growing food, which also needs oil more than commuters do. Hopefully their response is not to start turning coal into fuel, like China and others are already doing. Peak oil might "peak" as a problem first, but it's not the only one we've got, obviously.