Speculating in Misery

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard brings us an interesting article dealing with the speculation of agricultural land.

Speculators like rich hedge funds and billionaires have been buying up large chunks of foreign agricultural land in order to speculate on the hunger that a growing and more affluent world population will bring. Combine this growing demand with the destruction of existing productive land by overproduction, aquifer depletion and climate change related disasters and we are going to suffer some huge food supply issues in the near future. Mozambique, the example given in the story is just one of many countries that will be hurt this year because of Russian crop damage and the export ban.

The backlash to this speculation will undoubtedly cause more nations to ban or restrict the foreign ownership of agricultural resources. This is move is very likely in contravention of TWO rules and could possibly lead to the the unwinding of globalization. There are big legal and ethical issues tied up in all this such as globalization vs. national interest and the ethics of growing food for fuel and food speculation, all of which will propel food security issues way up the agenda in coming years.

One of the most telling parts of this article is a quote acknowledging that the drive for endless growth may be about to hit a brick wall, or in this case the Great Wall.

Cheng Siwei, head of China's green energy drive, told me last week that eco-damage of 13.5pc of GDP each year outstrips China’s growth rate of 10pc. National wealth is contracting. "We have an intangible environmental debt that
we are leaving to our children," he said. So does India. Much of the globe is stealing food from the future.

Imagine that, China the country touted as the next super power, an economic juggernaut because of its impressive rate of growth is doing more ecological damage than real growth!!! The endless growth model is flawed and China is quickly eating through its ecological capital in its rush to build cities, dams, airports and roads. In a generation it will be an urbanized country without the rural resources to support itself.

Sounds like a very unstable future.

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Transition Town arrives in York Region

Are you in York Region?

Do you believe in peak oil?

Are you concerned about the impact of peak oil?

If so you'll be pleased to know Transition (upper) York Region is born.

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Happy Raw Milk Day

Michael Schmidt was acquitted on 19 Charges today in Newmarket court.

I think it's great news to see that over bearing government interference has been beaten back in the case of Michael Schmidt, charged with the illegal sale and distribution of raw milk and raw milk products.

Sure raw milk CAN occasionally produce illness if contaminated but man has lived on this product for 1000s of years and survived, Mr Schmidt has never had anyone complain of illness and some of the best damn cheeses in the world are made with raw milk. This is a case of over zealous government policy attempting to interfere with educated peoples right to consume healthy whole food. It's not as if he's selling it as pasteurized when it's not. These consumers are more than eager to pay a premium for what they consider a more natural and healthy product, which should be their right. It also should be available without having join Mr Schmidt's brilliant but ridiculous Cow Share program. Who needs this grief just to buy a jug of milk!


I think the government needs to spend more time monitoring the filth in factory farms and meat packing plants and leave proven safe vendors of raw milk alone.



Besides he has Canadienne Cows a great historic breed which I like

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Just a thought on resource depletion, emergency preparations and economic resilience!

Most people who've heard of peak oil accept that it is a real phenomenon. Many people also realize that with rising world populations, increased consumption and the growing affluence of Asia that there will be a great many commodities from food, silver, distillates, catalysts, chemicals, rare earths and energy that will come into short term or permanent shortage at some time in our near future.

It is my belief that the GPC needs new ideas that will not only work towards the reality of resource depletion by advocating reduced consumption but at the same time creating policy that will strengthen Canada's resilience to the economic shocks caused by possible shortages. With this in mind I think that the GPC should adopt policy calling for the creation of regional strategic stockpiles that work with industry to make sure that primary materials required for the smooth operation of Canadian economic engine do not run out due to short term market shortages, or environmental emergencies.

I would also suggest that strategic reserves of grains, emergency supplies, and vital infrastructure components should be created so that in case of something like a massive blackout, ice storm, solar flare, hurricane etc. important infrastructure like the power grid or water treatment system can be restored in a timely manner without relying on foreign deliveries or waiting for the manufacture of damaged equipment. I'm sure there are already some government and utility provisions in place for such events but with the combination of resource depletion and the expectation of more volatile weather from climate change these programs surely need to be beefed up.

Now I admit there is no way to hoard our way to prosperity but having a strategic reserve for for energy is something most counties have. We do not! Canada always makes excuses for itself because it’s so big and cold, all the more reason to have a stockpile so no one ends up freezing in the dark, NO?

In today's just in time delivery system a strategic supply of food is only sane considering grocery stores and the distribution system only have a few days of anything in stock.

A strategic supply of rare earths for example will not keep us in business if the world runs out but would certainly keep industry running during a short term delivery interruption and would also be a great carrot to entice manufacturing companies to set up shop in Canada. Rare earths are especially important to those Green Techs we claim we wish to support like the manufacture of PV units and wind turbines.

Precursor chemicals for common and wide spread drugs like thyroxin, blood thiners or increased stockpiles of insulin might also be wise.

This is not an over night project but something that would take the better part of decade to build up to. Consultation with industry, economists, logistics people and the prioritization of which materials to stockpile would be a project unto itself but certainly energy and food should top of the list.

We are also in a time when currencies are going wild, the possibility sovereign defaults are being openly considered and it might just make sense to put part of our reserves into something that is real, growing in rarity and vital for our economic engine rather than more U.S. T bills.Recommend this Post

Food security: Ending the year on a downer

Unlike last year before the crash there’s been little talk about food shortages in 2009 but it's my belief that this will change by spring/early summer 2010.

There have been a series of crop failures world wide with China, Australia, and Argentina all suffering long term droughts which have severely damaged grain production. India not only had a poor monsoon season but also heavy winds and rain damaging crops in their other growing season. All these problems could cause food issues during any normal year but it would also appear that the USDA has been cooking the books on crop yields to keep prices in check; a great ploy when you know it’s only going to be a short term blip but in this case it could be the fraud before the famine.

This article from Marketsceptics.com shows that 2009 USDA corn and soy predictions (in most cases) not only went up from earlier in the year but are also above the 5 year average making it look like a bumper year, so what’s the problem? Well it seems that the USDA is ignoring its own data on counties that have been declared Natural disaster areas,(areas suffering 30% or higher crop damage). In fact the in the 30 days before the article was written a staggering 274 counties were added to the list. An additional 66 counties were added on Christmas Eve, I guess they figured people would be too busy to notice.

Some areas just barely qualify for the 30% damage criteria but other counties are virtualy destroyed, making the USDA predictions that much more suspect.

Despite all these declared emergencies there have been no modifications to the already overly optimistic crop estimates. Come next spring it will become obvious that these predictions were bogus when shortages in corn and soy will begin to hit the markets. There is also potential for shortages in wheat, rice, and other grains due to both the U.S. and foreign disasters driving food inflation through the roof. As we saw in 2008, food shortages will lead to higher prices, a rush to hoard, the banning of exports which lead to more local shortages and last but certainly not least civil unrest.

Read the whole article and judge for yourself if there are reasons to worry, but other people such as the National Inflation Association is also predicting food shortages and high prices plus I’ve been telling you that we’ve been one bad crop away from problems for several years.

This is just another wake up call for the move towards localization and food self sufficiency, get involved in a local food movement, a transition town group, Food Not Lawns; Something! Also don't forget that next years food shortages will inevitably turn into 2011’s retail seed shortage. I would suggest buying one the several garden kit packages being offered that give you a wide selection of seeds packaged for long term storage. Some of these companies offer both northern and southern garden kits giving you the varieties more suited for your climate. I think the best deals out there are these collections from Baker Creek Heirloom seeds
I wish these guys had an associate program I’d love to join.

These seeds can be stored and will maintain their viability for years to come giving you the opportunity to either save money now gardening or prepare for your future food security. Learn to save seeds from each years crop and the benefit will be perpetual. Don’t leave it until too late, one of the companies I’ve listed before and purchase some of my own survival seeds from a few years ago increased their sales volumes by several times and ran out of seed last season. Many people see this trend and are acting.


If you don’t know how to grow your own food I’d recommend this book on gardening small spaces and this one on Seed saving

Food shortages are inevitable as we move along the peak oil path but are not solely dependant on peak oil. We can and will face shortages in the near future and we need to adapt now because the end of cheap oil will only make them that much worse in the coming decade.Recommend this Post

A renewal in canning and stealth doomers

A recent Globe article high lighted the return of the canner, those intrepid folks who actually care enough about their food to do their own processing and preserving.

"The new breed of canner is driven by politics as much as practicality. A desire to eat locally and regain control over what goes into our food is fuelling a resurgence in farmers' markets and backyard kitchen gardens. Many see canning as a necessary step toward having year-round access to produce from their own region"

I admit that a portion of these people are simply foodies who wish to make their own distinct high quality food. Some of these folks are also recent converts to the local food movements like the 100 mile diet a useful and noble endeavour. Still others may be concerned about the health effects of eating genetically modified fruit and vegetables grown in China, sprayed with pesticides, adulterated with preservatives and sealed in a nice BPA lined can. Yummy!

What this article does not mention is that many of this new wave of canning enthusiasts are people preparing for the worst to happen. Peak oilers and their peak food brethren, those who fear a depression and unemployment and people who understand that a severe flu season could impair just in time food delivery systems all have sound reasons for taking food security into their own hands.

Now I understand this piece is from the food and wine section and I should not expect in depth journalism but would it be too much to ask that they at least throw the issue of food security a bone? Of course it's also quite possible that some of the people researched for the story simply lied about why they have started canning, these are people I call stealth doomers.

I know a number of these stealth doomers and if asked why? in a public environment will probably say "oh it's just a hobby", " I like to cook", "it tastes better". In reality they worry about the stigma that prepared or cautious people receive in our "live for the moment" society. The stories change drastically when you get them alone or in a small group of like minded people and you soon find out who has bags of rice under the bed, a solar oven or Berkeley water filter in the basement or even a gun in the attic, yet often their families and friends don't know about their preparations.

I remember a post from one lady saying she was afraid of having a guest stay over in her 2 bedroom apartment because if they oppened the guest closet they would find it filled with survival supplies. I'm not sure if it was fear of being mocked or fear of being robbed during an emergency.

Stealth doomers or not it's great news that people are canning again even if they are just making chutney. Just a year or two ago Bernardin Canada had proposed killing the Mason Jar line because canning was dying off and it was losing money for the company. Had this new wave of enthusiasts not arisen the jars would have been discontinued for sure and eventually the lids and seals may have ceased production.

Besides, chutney, salsa, relishes etc. are all good small batch preserves on which to hone your skills and when peak oil does begin to limit our variety of foods people will find that tasty condiments go a long way in limiting food monotony.

In our house gardening, gleaning, freezing, canning and seed saving have all been part of this years food security effort and I tell everybody exactly why I'm doing it. Doomers should open up more and encourage others to do the same, that way there will be less people at your door begging for chutney should/when the hard times come.Recommend this Post

Adventures in community gardening

A number of years ago I belonged to a community garden long before I was aware of all the reasons it should be more widely spread and supported by local governments. Eventually things happened, we both began to commute to the city on a daily basis, the land the garden was on was slated for redevelopment and the garden got move to the other side of town making it just that much harder for us to work on a regular basis. I think somewhere in there was my pouched thyroid and a nasty ass case of carpel tunnel in both wrists making much of the work damn hard to accomplish, we finished the season and gave up our plot.

It has to be 5-6 years later now and while I still commute and now have kids to take up my time, I also know that we can no longer take our food security for granted, so once again I applied for and received one of the few spaces not retained by last years gardeners. What really surprises me about the program is the lack of continuity and the level of support from the town/region. I know that they have supplied land, water, mulch and man hours to the program but in my first year back after a number of years away I find there is still a waiting list to get in, there have been no new gardens or land added to the town’s program and while town population has climbed to over 70,000 there are only 64 plots available, the same as 6 years ago.

Perhaps the most disconcerting thing to find out is that the municipality wants its land back and we are moving from a piece of land where people have been working to improve the soil to a new garden with unimproved clay. I would have been ecstatic had they simply added the new clay field as additional plots which could be bettered over time, increasing the towns productivity and enticing new urban farmers into the program, but to once again turf people off fertile soil is both maddening and shows the lack of understanding and commitment from local governments towards local food, not to mention health and poverty. I’m unsure who the land belongs to but I think it’s York Region rather than Newmarket.

There are other things I don’t understand about the way our community garden is run.

You are not allowed access to your plot until a time around the regional frost date and the last date for gardening is in October

I was told this was so they could roto-till the field and restake the garden plots in the spring and since the machines need relatively dry soil they could not allow us into the gardens until late may. This explanation seems like a crock to me because the plots were not newly tilled and there was still a patch of the last gardener’s lettuce waiting for me on possession day, as well as dead tomatoes plants and cages from last year.

The gift lettuce is ready to start eating, Thank you mystery gardener.

Even if they did plan on tilling the soil and it just fell through I can’t for the life of me figure out why they would bother!

The soil is relatively easy to work, the plots are only 10x20, and the tilling limits both the length of the farming season and ability to plant perennial crops like asparagus, rhubarb, or raspberries because they plan to till your roots. This also stops people from sowing garlic which must go into the ground in the fall, stirs up more weed seeds and minces your worms. No planting until late May means you lose weeks off the growing season for frost resistant crops like lettuce, radishes and peas. With the lettuce and radishes you could probably get a crop harvested before the frost date even arrives, greatly increasing your yield for the year.

Some people might even have the ambition to slap together a cold frame and start frost resistant plants even earlier as my Grandfather used to do with cabbages; you could do the same with lettuce, strawberries, or spinach. The same cold frames used in the fall could keep people in salad greens until solstice. A later closing date for the garden would also improve the taste of some crops like parsnips that sweeten with frost. Since some people are prone to lose produce at home because of poor storage conditions or lack of refrigerated space, if access to the garden was extended later into the year many root crops can be heavily mulched and then dug up fresh right up until a hard freeze.

So while I’m pleased with this opportunity to access to free land, I’m uneasy with the lack of municipal support for the program and some aspects of the implementation which limits the flexibility and productivity of the garden plots. The organization that runs this program, the York Region Food network, has gardens in Newmarket, Aurora, Markham and Georgina. They also run a community kitchen program, the local food bank and a gleaning program, so I know they do good work, but there is room for improvement.

All this said, since I don’t have the time to get more involved and try to change the program from within I guess I should just STFU and enjoy my veggies.

For those interested my plot is now fully planted with, green beans, bok choy, carrots, cabbage, parsnips, peas, tomatoes, potatoes, hot and green peppers, zuks, cuks and a patch of dwarf blue corn.

I’ll be posting pics as things start looking greener.Recommend this Post

Survivalist Sundays: Bread blogging

All this talk about peak oil, peak food, articles like the one in the New Scientist this month talking about the fragility of modern civilization, the impact Kunstler's Long Emergency had on me, has had me looking to lean some new/old skills that are often lost on us modern people.

In the last few years I've been toyed with homemade candles but unless you have a apiary on your land or a field of bayberry what are you going use for wax, paraffin will be impossible to get, pricey and honestly not that good for you to be breathing anyway. I guess I can melt down tallow if I can find it.

I've been learning about and practicing high density gardening for years, and I've bought a 5lb tub of freezable open pollinated seeds giving me enough seeds to plant 2/3 of an acre if somehow I can access 2/3 of an acre. The seed bucket has around 28 different varieties of seeds chosen for our climate and can be frozen for storage and still remain viable for 7+ years. I think this the best under $100 insurance policy available. If you garden anyway you can store it for 5 years, start using it and replace it with another insurance policy.


Most recently I've taken to spending my Saturdays or more often Sundays in the kitchen making bread and so far I've made a few dozen loafs alternately trying successful recipes I've used before or trying something entirely new as I did today with a batch of whole wheat sour dough.

Now what good this skill we do for me when flour is scarce is certainly in question but I am on the hunt to find a source of wholesale hard wheat flour or even better actually buying a couple hundred pounds of hard wheat which if stored dry and unground has quite a long shelf life. Of course this means I've been scouring ebay and farm auctions etc looking for a deal on a grain mill but so far no luck. New mills can cost $200-$500 and of course you need to find one with a crank because you may not be able to rely on having power, but enough of that

here are a few web cam shots of today's bounty.


Sour dough sponge after sitting 12 hours, lots of froth and volume shows my sour dough starter is still healthy


Mixed/kneaded and resting, plays hell with my carpal tunnel but I will not resort to a mixer


Slightly misshapen loafs placed in pans for raising, I really like the single raising breads, the ones that take 3 raisings can eat up an entire day


Fully risen after two hours in a prewarmed oven, I turned the oven off but left the light on to keep it warmer than room temp


The better looking of the two finished loafs. Nice hard crust, sounds good and hollow when thumped.


Will this make a difference to our survivability in a crisis? I don't know, At the very least we end up with a variety of good non factory bread each week that I know has no preservatives, no unneeded sugars and no molasses to camouflage white flour hidden in "brown bread".
It does take some effort but the kids love the fresh bread, it seems to be cheaper than buying artisan bread from a bakery and paranoia aside it's an enjoyable activity. Should I get through this year without going on strike I'll be buying this little baby to make my bread making energy free.


Other recent projects



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